Monday, February 15, 2016

12 million Hong bao draw

Would you be buying a dream by 'investing' in a lottery ticket for the $12 million Hong bao draw?

*correction - should be $13.9 million instead!

Some financially savvy folks are saying that they might as well save the money and invest it for the long term, since that is a more sure-win bet.

Me? I won't hesitate to admit that i would be one of those buying a hope and a dream. To me, that amount won't cost me my financial freedom, at the most, it's only the cost of a lunch.

And are the odds really stacked against me? 
We can say it is 50/50, since there is only 2 outcome - either we strike, or we don't. [Just kidding!]

Singapore pools kindly disclaimed that  the odds of winning the jackpot is 1 in 13,983,816.

Given the winning prize is $13.9 million, what's the payoff? 
The payoff for a $1 dollar bet would be is [1/13986,816]*13,900,000, which is approximately close to 1!
Why wouldn't i buy a dream with $1?

Of course, assumption is that there is a sole winner (although in such cases, there are usually multiple winners, and the prize money are split a couple ways)

This is a post made in jest - no way am i encouraging people to gamble!

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